Note: If you know little about New Glenn, consider reading this article first.
Sources/references can be found at the bottom.

The following days are set to be exciting: We might be getting Starship’s seventh flight, the first docking between Indian spacecraft, two lunar landers launching in the same rocket and New Glenn’s debut.

Here, I will talk about New Glenn’s remarkable maiden flight, scheduled (as of writing) for this Sunday 12th of January at 06:00 AM UTC. This crucial launch could be the first orbital mission for Bezos’ space company.

New Glenn’s epic liftoff will be from the iconic LC-36 (Launch Complex-36) at Cape Canaveral SFS (Space Force Station) to a MEO (Medium Earth Orbit).

The inaugural flight - apart from gathering data - will carry (but not deploy) a pathfinder for the company’s Blue Ring project. This payload, when operational, will serve the purpose of refueling satellites, transporting them and more.

This historic first flight was originally scheduled to carry the interplanetary ESCAPADE (Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers) spacecraft to Mars for NASA. These are two identical spacecraft with the goal of studying the Red Planet’s magnetosphere and the effect of solar wind on the Martian atmosphere. After delays, the space agency decided to carry the twin spacecraft on a future New Glenn flight.

ESCAPADE spacecraft. (Credit: Rocket Lab)

Weather

A launch attempt on the 10th was scrubbed due to bad weather near the Jacklyn Landing Barge. Jacklyn is approximately 622 km (386 miles) from the LC-36. Along with Jacklyn, there is also a command vessel (Harvey Stone) around 8 km (5 miles) south of the barge.

Image of Jacklyn in Port Canaveral. (Credit: Blue Origin)

For this attempt, waves are expected to be 3 m while winds are 14 kt gusting 24 kt.

It has been rumored they could delay it to Monday or Tuesday for better weather in the recovery zone:

Monday: 1.8m waves, wind 7 kt gusting 15 kt.
Tuesday: 1.6m waves, wind 11 kt gusting 16 kt.

As for launch weather, the USSF (United States Space Force) predicts a 10% PoV (Probability of Violation) on Sunday, while a 24-hour delay would mean a 15-25% PoV. The only concern is thick clouds.

Flight Profile

The seven mighty BE-4 (Blue Engine 4) engines at the business end of the rocket light up at T-5.6 and shortly later, the massive rocket takes off from the LC-36 at T-0. This moment will be significant for all of the engineers who have tirelessly worked for years to get New Glenn to the launch pad, and historic for spaceflight.

New Glenn render. For this flight, the interstage and bottom of the rocket will be brown. (Credit: Blue Origin)

New Glenn will then pass through the rigorous Max-Q (Maximum Dynamic Pressure) period at T+1:39, as it ascends until the liquid oxygen and methane on GS1 (Glenn Stage 1) has almost drained out.

MECO (Main Engine Cutoff) will follow at T+3:10, meaning that the BE-4 engines shut off. Two seconds later, GS1 and GS2 (Glenn Stage 2) will separate. While GS2 fires up its powerful BE-3U(s) (Blue Engine 3 Upper stage), GS1 will be reorienting to get ready for a landing attempt on Jacklyn, Blue Origin’s droneship.

For this landing to happen, GS1 will then have to relight twice:

Exoatmospheric deceleration burn: A short burn, getting ready to enter the atmosphere from T+7:17 to T+7:45.
Landing burn: Near the ground, another relight using possibly 1 engine (as of writing, the number of engines that will be used is unknown) at T+8:52. Booster touchdown will be at T+9:28.

New Glenn landing. (Credit: Blue Origin)

As you can see, the landing profile for New Glenn is very similar to Falcon 9’s profile. While we hope the landing succeeds, these maneuvers might very well fail. For comparison, the only other company/government who has successfully landed an orbital class rocket is SpaceX.

It is important to note, however, that Blue Origin has landed multiple times the first stage of their suborbital New Shepard rocket. The thing is, there is quite a difference between landing a small stage that barely reaches space and only needs one relight to one gigantic stage that comes back much faster, from a higher altitude, and needs to reenter the atmosphere.

New Shepard first stage landing. (Credit: Blue Origin)

Referring to this landing, the space giant has named GS1 “So You’re Telling Me There’s A Chance”. As the CEO of Blue Origin, Dave Limp, stated on X “No one has landed a reusable booster on the first try. Yet, we’re going for it, and humbly submit having good confidence in landing it.”

Meanwhile, New Glenn will jettison its massive 7-metre payload fairings at T+3:49, and in doing so it will expose the Blue Ring payload demonstrator to the vacuum of space for the first time. Blue Ring will not be deployed.

Fairing jettison. Payload shown is not Blue Ring. (Credit: Blue Origin)

As the rocket will head to a MEO, it will need a second burn of the second stage. Engine ignition will be at T+57:42 with SECO-2 (Second Engine Cutoff) at T+58:58

The mission will end at T+5:50:58

Why so long?

This launch has been the focus of many critics.

Most notably, it is often pointed out that SpaceX was founded in 2002 and reached orbit in 2008. On the other hand, Blue Origin was founded in 2000 and is currently targeted to reach orbit in 2025.

Falcon 1 Flight 4, first SpaceX mission to reach orbit. (Credit: SpaceX)

While this is true, it isn’t like Blue Origin has been continuously trying to reach orbit.

SpaceX started working on Falcon 1 as soon as they began.

However, Blue Origin started working on New Shepard around 2006 and began to plan New Glenn around 2011.

One famous phrase Jeff Bezos uses is “gradatim ferociter” (latin for “step by step ferociously”). SpaceX learns from its failures, as demonstrated from Falcon 1 and Starship.

Ending

Scheduled to carry human landers to the Moon as part of the Artemis program and to deploy Amazon’s Kuiper satellite constellation, it is needless to say New Glenn could be one of the most important rockets of this decade.

Render of Blue Moon. (Credit: Blue Origin)

If launched on the 12th, it will become the 4th active partially-reusable orbital rocket in history, joining the club with SpaceX’s Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Starship (planned to be fully reusable).

We all hope the launch goes to plan and we can get to see another heavy-lift rocket fly in a few days.

Godspeed New Glenn.